<?phpxml version="1.0" encoding="iso-8859-1"?>
<rss version="2.0" 
     xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
     xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
     xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
 >
<channel>
	<title>pligg - published -David Lereah-</title>
	<link>http://www.housebubble.org</link>
	<description>Pligg Web 2.0 Content Management System</description>
	<pubDate>Wed, 14 Mar 2007 09:47:54 MDT</pubDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<item>
		<title><![CDATA["Do Not Expect a Quick Rebound" in Prices]]></title>
		<link>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=Do-Not-Expect-Quick-Rebound-in-Prices</link>
		<comments>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=Do-Not-Expect-Quick-Rebound-in-Prices</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Mar 2007 09:47:54 MDT</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>elliotw</dc:creator>
		<category>David Lereah</category>
		<guid>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=Do-Not-Expect-Quick-Rebound-in-Prices</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[CNN Money has this warning to mainstream America, &amp;quot;Don't Expect a Quick Rebound&amp;quot;.  &amp;quot;Is the housing slump really that bad? After all, the S&amp;amp;P 500 last week fell more in a single day (3.5 percent) than home prices have fallen in the past year nationally (3.1 percent).Still, it could be years before home prices regain the peaks seen before the current stumble - and even that's optimistic.&amp;quot;I expect prices and sales to be modestly growing by June in most of the country,&amp;quot; said David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors and perhaps the most bullish housing economist. &amp;quot;But we'll have to go into 2008, maybe even 2009 before we get even close to the peaks we saw in late 2005 or early 2006.&amp;quot;Two big factors could prolong the slump: the glut of homes on the market after a record building boom, and the fact that prices saw unprecedented gains during the white-hot real estate market of the first half of the decade.Another worry is rising mortgage defaults, especially in the subprime sector, that could lead lenders and regulators to choke off the credit that fed the previous booms.Celia Chen, director of housing economics for Moody's Economy.com, says she thinks it will take until 2009 for prices nationally to reach the peaks hit in 2005. Take inflation into account, she said, and a full recovery could take more than 7 years.Hugh Moore, a partner with money manager Guerite Advisors who has been studying home prices, thinks over-supply is the biggest problem.New homes completed and available for sale reached a record high of 175,000 in January, up 47 percent from a year earlier, according to the Census Bureau. The Realtors' trade group reports existing homes for sale was up 23 percent to 3.5 million.The glut of new homes has hurt major U.S. builders. New Jersey builder Hovnanian Enterprises (Charts) became the latest to report a loss late Thursday, following operating losses at Pulte Home (Charts), KB Home (Charts) and Centex (Charts).Don Tomnitz, CEO of No. 1 builder D.R. Horton (Charts), which has stayed in the black, said earlier this week he doesn't expect 2008 to be a great year and added, &amp;quot;'07 is going to suck.&amp;quot;Moore also points to the latest quarterly Census report showing a record 2.1 million empty homes on the market available for sale. That's a jump of 34 percent from a year earlier and the sixth straight quarter of record vacant homes.&amp;quot;That's a huge run-up in the numbers, that says there's a very big overhang of inventory,&amp;quot; Moore said.&amp;quot; &nbsp;&#187;&nbsp;<a href='http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/102597/Home-Prices:-No-Quick-Rebound'>original news</a>]]></description>
	</item>

	<item>
		<title><![CDATA[David Lereah: "improvement in sales ...price appreciation"]]></title>
		<link>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=David-Lereah-improvement-in-sales-price-appreciation</link>
		<comments>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=David-Lereah-improvement-in-sales-price-appreciation</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Jan 2007 09:20:58 MST</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>god</dc:creator>
		<category>David Lereah</category>
		<guid>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=David-Lereah-improvement-in-sales-price-appreciation</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said annual totals for existing-home sales will be fairly comparable between 2006 and 2007.  &amp;quot;We have to keep in mind that we were still in boom conditions during the first quarter of 2006 with a high sales volume and double-digit price appreciation,&amp;quot; he said. &amp;quot;We are starting 2007 from a relatively low point, so even with a gradual improvement in sales it'll be pretty much of a wash in terms of annual totals.  The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward.&amp;quot;Existing-home sales for 2006 are expected to come in at 6.50 million, the third highest on record, with a total of 6.42 million seen in 2007.  New-home sales in 2006 should tally 1.06 million, the fourth highest on record, with 957,000 projected this year.Total housing starts for 2006 are likely to be 1.81 million units, with 1.51 million forecast in 2007, which would be the lowest level in a decade.  Builders are pulling back on new construction to support prices of remaining inventory.The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably rise to 6.7 percent by the fourth quarter of 2007.  Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate at 6.18 percent - far below earlier consensus forecasts.  &amp;quot;The current interest rate environment and housing inventory levels present a window of opportunity for potential buyers,&amp;quot; Lereah said.The national median existing-home price for all of 2006 is expected to rise 1.1 percent to $222,100, and then gain 1.5 percent this year to $225,300.  The median new-home price, after rising only 0.3 percent to $241,600 in 2006, is projected to grow 3.0 percent in 2007 to $248,900.&amp;quot;With all the wild projections by academics, Wall Street analysts and others in the media, it appears that much of the housing sector is experiencing a soft landing,&amp;quot; Lereah said.  &amp;quot;Despite the doomsayers, household wealth will not evaporate and the economy will not go into a recession.  If you're in it for the long haul, housing is a sound investment.&amp;quot; &nbsp;&#187;&nbsp;<a href='http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/gradual_rise_projected_for_home_sales.html'>original news</a>]]></description>
	</item>

</channel>
</rss>
