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	<title>pligg - published -lies, lies, lies-</title>
	<link>http://www.housebubble.org</link>
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	<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jan 2007 00:39:25 MST</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Keeping Tabs on David Lereah]]></title>
		<link>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=Keeping-Tabs-on-David-Lereah</link>
		<comments>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=Keeping-Tabs-on-David-Lereah</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jan 2007 00:39:25 MST</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>elliotw</dc:creator>
		<category>lies, lies, lies</category>
		<guid>http://www.housebubble.org/story.php?title=Keeping-Tabs-on-David-Lereah</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[MarketWatch has this very amusing account of the Bagdad Bob of Real Estate: &amp;quot;There are two universal truths at the National Association of Realtors: 1) It's always a good time to buy or sell a home; and 2) We've seen the worst of the housing market correction.The second truth was in the script used throughout 2006 by David Lereah, chief economist for the NAR, even as sales plunged by 8.4%, the fastest decline in 17 years. See full story.With annual sales of 6.48 million, 2006 was the third best ever, but after five years of steady increases, it was a rough year for the industry. Through it all, Lereah never stopped smiling.At the beginning of 2006, Lereah was projecting home sales would fall about 4.4% to 6.79 million. In the end, however, the decline was about double what he'd projected. For 2007, Lereah is currently projecting a decline of about 0.9% to 6.42 million.Here's what Lereah was saying throughout 2006 and into 2007, and what the market was doing.January 2006Lereah's forecast: &amp;quot;The market is in the process of normalization.&amp;quot;Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 12.6% to 6.94 million annualized.Lereah's post-mortem: &amp;quot;The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead.&amp;quot;April 2006Lereah's forecast: &amp;quot;Home sales will move up and down somewhat over the remainder of the year but stay at a high plateau.&amp;quot;Actual sales: First-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 8.6% to 6.79 million.Lereah's post-mortem: &amp;quot;This is additional evidence that we're experiencing a soft landing.&amp;quot;July 2006Lereah's forecast: &amp;quot;The market should even out just below present levels.&amp;quot;Actual sales: Second-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 6% to 6.69 million.Lereah's post-mortem: &amp;quot;The market is stabilizing.&amp;quot;October 2006Lereah's forecast: &amp;quot;We expect sales activity to pick up early next year.&amp;quot;Actual sales: Third-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 22.2% to 6.28 million. &amp;quot; &nbsp;&#187;&nbsp;<a href='http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/commentary-realtors-economist-stayed-sunny/story.aspx?guid={EBC34E29-49EE-4925-A69A-52807DBE0C1E}'>original news</a>]]></description>
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